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�٠`�`�`5�s8(� China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, warned on Thursday of the risks of a "Minsky moment," citing relatively high corporate debt and saying household lending was rising too quickly. The New Yorker has labelled it "the Minsky Moment". PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 Although there were a handful of economists who had warned as early as 2000 about the possibility of a cri-sis, Minsky’s warnings actually began a half century earlier— This book provides an introduction to Minsky’s alterna-tive approach to economic theory and policy and explains why Minsky matters. SHARE THIS STORY. 0000001050 00000 n Minsky Moment defines the tipping point when speculative activity reaches an extreme that is unsustainable, leading to rapid price deflation and unpreventable market collapse. Will stock markets see a Minsky Moment in 2020? Speci cally, we model shadow banking as o - balance-sheet nancing. Minsky Moment, in the ‘Minsky crisis accelerator’ stage, the relevant ‘bottom’ parameters are the number of ponzi units / quantity of failures / defaults. Minsky started with an explanation of investment. 0000000900 00000 n THE MINSKY MOMENT by John Cassidy FEBRUARY 4, 2008 wenty-five years ago, when most economists were extolling the virtues of financial deregulation and innovation, a maverick named Hyman P. Minsky maintained a more negative view of Wall Street; in fact, he endstream h���͋����P)�G тB2F��d�b!J�:�AY���e�QYz0a��`Psq�X�` 0000038943 00000 n Our savory … Minsky Moments and begin to conduct monetary policy consistent with the Minsky model. 0000001392 00000 n j-2�_�Y�d8nC/cm�:υy��-佧r��R�QK�'��.�܋:`�Ϋ�\م�T�Q� m@�+��^S9��v� �R�� endstream endobj 149 0 obj <>/Encoding<>>>>> endobj 132 0 obj <> endobj 133 0 obj <> endobj 134 0 obj <> endobj 135 0 obj <> endobj 59 0 obj <> endobj 62 0 obj <> endobj 65 0 obj <> endobj 68 0 obj <> endobj 71 0 obj <> endobj 74 0 obj <> endobj 78 0 obj <> endobj 81 0 obj <> endobj 86 0 obj <> endobj 91 0 obj <> endobj 93 0 obj <>stream �>��ʋs�9�E�b�C���\ ��py>4r��)����@!�Uq'B�%���� endstream endobj 92 0 obj <>/ColorSpace<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageC/ImageI]/ExtGState<>>> endobj 144 0 obj <> endobj 142 0 obj <> endobj 146 0 obj <> endobj 147 0 obj <> endobj 143 0 obj <> endobj 114 0 obj [/ICCBased 115 0 R] endobj 129 0 obj [/Indexed 114 0 R 255 94 0 R] endobj 94 0 obj <>stream xref 43 15 0000000507 00000 n moment” or a “Minsky crisis.” As I will discuss, I agree that this crisis does fit with Minsky’s theory, but I object to analyses that begin with, say, 2004—attributing the causes of the crisis to changes that occurred over a handful of years that preceded the collapse. Here’s the kicker. ;r�'�h�f'���>�WLjZ�0.���&�!hS3�\܌v�k�l�7����0���;w ��r�̼�Z`n��~tj@O ގr�}���(^���ɠ |�b-��� ��� ������'����O�Z,�̚Dq�d���zT��������@K�!N�y ��?Ѕ�s���B�P���\ 0000002560 00000 n Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s. 0000001933 00000 n user ��RHI[J����}S Implications of Financial Instability Hypothesis. • A Minsky cycle is the gradual accumulation of excessive debt, which inflates asset prices. To make the case for thinking about Minsky notions throughout the business cycle, this chapter fi rst documents the poor predictive powers of standard Taylor rule equations over the past 10 years. 0000038596 00000 n It has three phases: 1) Hedge Finance: Assets are equal to or uuid:ba19258c-eb63-4e46-8f77-74fe082189df ��/�c��~�wn/DoE��� �i4W�4��� Minsky argued that system dynamics inherent to capitalism breed fragility and crisis, as stability A firm pays now for the construction of a factory; profits from running the facility will, all going well, translate into money for it in coming years. 0000001190 00000 n Save this story for later. trailer <<4AF7013C2541C81F195C866D1C0AC7FA>]>> startxref 0 %%EOF 43 0 obj <> endobj 44 0 obj <>>>>> endobj 45 0 obj <>>> endobj 46 0 obj <>>> endobj 47 0 obj <> endobj 48 0 obj <> endobj 49 0 obj <>/FontDescriptor 48 0 R/CIDToGIDMap/Identity/W[0[777 250 389 443 777 443 389 722 250 722 277 500 333]13 14 277 15[500 610 666 556 443 500 333 556 500]24 25 722 26 28 500 29[610 500 250 500 920 500 722 889 556]38 40 500 41[333 500 277 943]45 46 500 47[722]48 49 500 50[722 333 722]53 55 443 57[333]58 59 500 60[333 722 180 277 408 722 333 500 666 610 666 277]72 73 500 74[722 500]76 77 443 ]>> endobj 50 0 obj <>stream Acrobat Distiller 8.1.0 (Windows) �O��q>���GS�DZ!>������v���W |R�3�"��}c96E�� The late Hyman Minsky said that such moments arise naturally when a long period of stability and complacency eventually leads to the buildup of excess debt and overleveraging. It has become known as the Minsky Moment which is a sudden major collapse of asset values which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Thus we offer a “generalized Minsky moment”. this The Minsky Moment isspasm of private credit contraction and the forced sale of even nonspeculative assets into the abyss of a falling market. From the moment you bite into one of Minsky’s Zagat Award-winning gourmet pizzas, you’ll understand why Minsky’s has been voted “Kansas City’s Best Pizza” time and time again. endobj 51 0 obj <>stream According to Minsky, the financial system carries the seeds of its own destruction through increasing leverage. 2015). It is, in essence, an exchange of money today for money tomorrow. The Minsky Moment is this spasm of private credit contraction and the forced sale of even non-speculative assets into the abyss of a falling market. Technology- and behavior-driven change could be just as significant a driver of these climate-triggered Minsky moments, which do not require that demand for a fuel drops to zero. There is still a danger of a “Minsky moment” hitting China’s economy. Few investors now remember the days when price discovery was thought to be the key role of stock markets. The Minsky Moment Ji Huang National University of Singapore August 2015 Abstract In this paper, we modernize Minsky’s \Financial Instability Hypothesis" within a continuous-time macro- nance model in which the nancial market consists of both regular banking and shadow banking. 2009-10-05T16:29:46-04:00 Memo: What Would It Take for the United States to Become Another Argentina?, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF 2009-10-05T09:57:53-04:00 uuid:9dfe86d8-ca09-4ff7-aa03-410e53007782 Minsky moment that rapidly degenerated into a Minsky meltdown In my presentation I will discuss the good and bad reasons of this revival I intend to argue that the moment of Minsky should not be confined to Minsky moments: a correct understanding of his far-reaching message may help us to avoid a further Minsky meltdown that could be the big one The Minsky moment is comparable to the Looney Tunes character Wile E. Coyote who, in his zeal to catch the Road Runner, sometimes runs off a cliff, but only realises he's standing on thin air when he looks down In short, Minsky’s thesis, aka the financial instability hypothesis, puts … • This is followed by a market crash, which deflates them as debt is reduced • A Minsky moment is the point when the crash happens • Most analysts do not see a Minsky moment … Minsky also proposed microeconomic counterpart for this macroeconomic crisis which became famous as shift in financing structures from hedged’ to ‘speculative’, and from ‘speculative’ to ‘Ponzi’ financing. However, the ‘Minsky moment’ could be found in the collapse of coffee prices, which was the crop of choice for many plantations. h�|P�N�0��+����;� �s�Mt ��G^1Ǒ(p$���l ��8����j�$웣u�Z|63l�ˇ����҉�kߏ�(�6���\��o�������X'5 A���cB"�5pZz�6h'A�8���&����F�4�2�*s¡SJ�1� p����I@����,NF���A$C�����84������Ҍ��ތ���'���qֱ� g���z��.�.� ګ�bD)CN}VV��N�k%Z0K��2�8�~�/.h�E^��˷�.�3�qf.���Z�U k����c�c�`�g��K� ,5l� Minsky’s taxonomy of financial behavior can be generalized far beyond its original sphere of application. After spending three years in a $250 trading range (between $1,121 and $1,375), spot gold has erupted since late May and is up 18.01% YTD as of last Friday's (8/15) close at $1,523.34. This meltdown scenario is often referred as the 'Minsky moment' in China (Qi et al. 0000038240 00000 n Usually, the Minksy moment comes when lending and debt levels have built up to unsustainable levels. Minsky argued that a key mechanism that pushes an economy towards a crisis is the accumulation of debt by the non-government sector. Microsoft Word - WP579_paper.doc Davidson (2008) argues that to experience a ‘Minsky moment’ the defined characteristics by Minsky have to appear during the bubble phase including rising financial fragility based on a higher level of Ponzi finance. It can lead to a balance sheet recession. The Next Minsky Moment Economics has its overused themes and phrases, too. In - Here’s the kicker. We ignore it at our peril. At Minsky’s, “Gourmet, and going to stay that way” is more than just a slogan. Minsky was very much in favor of an aggressively accommodationist Fed, a buyer of Minsky believed that central banks were the solution to financial instability, not the cause. 3. ��m�u��s��q�� �b��O�{ 5���\���)�� q��M�a4��F2~��'Ə���%�Fk���&`S�� ~�ՠRGel��9ͬ`��1��9��8�3�7�>3�+L0������^��33�'��xC���l Lessons From History - Opportunities for Reform, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF. ����42RR5IA�=�ą� or?, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF. China’s Long Minsky Moment. One is “Minsky moment,” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis. That’s not how it works. Minsky argued that because capitalism was prone to this instability, it was necessary to use government regulation to prevent financial bubbles. The concept of systemic instability is the cornerstone of Hyman Minsky's work. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television, where three women of a certain age are discussing one of the friend’s use of Facebook concepts such as “posting to a wall” or “status updates”. However, by now, Minsky would be fretting that another “Minsky moment” is not far away and pondering what lies ahead. Minsky Moment generate sufficient operating surplus to serve the debts incurred to obtain the investments (ibid). Minsky Moment. 0000000570 00000 n More troubling is the fact that the existing definitions focus on disparate aspects of a financial crisis that may play a distinctive role in different historical episodes. Il Parere di Hyman P. Minsky, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF. BY Trey Reik | Tuesday, August 20, 2019 pdf version. Rather, I … 2. Business cycles and instability are endogenously generated by capitalism. by Paul Hodges on 5th January 2020 in Financial Events. “Minsky moment.” The Financial Instability Hypothesis Hyman Minsky wrote many times about his hypothesis, but perhaps the most concise version is in Minsky (1978). Introduction Minsky Cycle Minsky Model Minsky and Keynes 1. By John Cassid y. August 13, 2015. Financial Events. ��c-�o�c�_�7�[��������6>Ǔ�)8~�����?�2@��abL�)AK;��R�<860��bF�k`�a2G��Ya��Zv���~�}�}��'�p).˵r+� ��ܫ�ϸ7��~E�b���J���\��Ly�� �{ʏUJU��"Ս��T>h�#h�at�_V�*�Ja�cށy!�C��x����c�`�d���f%���^�^^�����݄W2�� �W����;P?���9�����>�}羄�d6���|D���ݬx0�W��ي'��7�7W�A-��;���!�;�X�;0��3��K?e.ev�~���] That’s not how any of this works. Thus, this paper employs a wider definition of Minsky moments by including Minskian elements in the bubble development. Minsky believed that central banks were the solution to financial instability, not the cause. -�.���!$��;��M}�ٔ��eD�;"QB%�0�Pǹ���N]3���� �>�}�v�%����5!���f|tY�^B� 9�gɓ��'�����O^BD����O����ҹ�e��_\}޽o��Y-����ǹ�Ԣ��y��I�+"]��K�T�:�[:�Y73P�1n��{�'%��~)��()���P�@�4K]�����u@�_���&o����jmoI~�~�g�?S=�N*�E���;wj>��j�ή�Եsp�ډ��E!I�g����.�x�Ј��H�A������������� Minsky argued that this was bunkum. Post-2008, economists have started to use the term “Minsky moment” to describe when credit markets begin … Macroeconomic policies (monetary, fiscal, labor markets policies and regulatory environment) affect the course of the development of an economy. 0000039397 00000 n Save this story for later. Money and finance play fundamental role in determining investment, production and economic activities. 0000000754 00000 n ɥ9DM.$�b�� �.��~��. It was a Minsky Moment, a one-way trade that imploded against itself. Minsky was very much in favor of an aggressively accommodationist Fed, a buyer of 2009-10-05T16:29:46-04:00 ���Ck�{�[���tʒ�Oҩ���ڭ� �ZD�? %PDF-1.6 %���� Hyman Minsky's theories about debt accumulation received revived attention in the media during the subprime mortgage crisis of the first decade of this century. x�]�]k�@����l9��nL��"[i &� 4�����;m����3�N�ڮ�M5���-2?D��){i�}ᣣ?W��HTV�@⳨�n��f����msj���}]��v�,ۣ������Us��������u����=,�?� vy���>~{ٽ��:T������m�7�lw��v�u>����_���}ޜ�d�0~�ӭߔ��ӔoO�G���z|L Q�Yl��!8��� �4@j )�zC�!��H�"��B6�5"3�GxF�`h�l>� |�f�@�g}��$l��OJSdž�$�M |R�F*�$T0�Q�>S�J��r>S&�8�u�DZ��eC>V��Dz6�|���T8^ distinguish between a Minsky moment and a Minsky process, defining the first as the starting point of the second. xڌ� |��?>���V��^ݫ[�N[�m9&^DZs8&q; �@���&Ҙr�$����-I[�Z� In the real world, the level and type of debt in the economy drives major economic cycles. 139 0 obj <> endobj 136 0 obj <>stream Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed money. The Minsky Moment Meme. ���rG�������)t%���Bv�g�e�W��!�P�e�G*~�A+W �~=�R ��"��!�]$�[�'��=�uNK����X�7�粙t*Y��Ǣ�p(��>���r���b6 F�^�ըy�R��F��Pנ4碡���>�֞�08.AR�g�K�4��ٜ2���r�՜�'9� ���tJ�I��燤 �zY?Ŀ8?4 �O�x��Ѹ� � u��K�xP��f�����P�~��#�q�&�B�5Z�j!6� �ǎ��FGg�~�z�Ը+4�s��Oj0�F:׮�]��9��S�c]�q�7nL�,��~f\�1����.%�A����ɝwL���n}h����ٵ��$|w����S⧷P�����O���N�R���ܹ]߷���r�2ƙH���.��Ѕ��%�s�@�8�>(�v�6U[wq���^&��C�Bw^6��9���8�r�G+'��S��� %PDF-1.4 %���� �b�����L�༁�ax�T|��I%��F"7��`V`x��}TFh�>�h�_7�M�g�0Z7�Tӄ�4Ҹj�L��A�����i�N��4������Q �\U�g?��f��W�. r#T�w+���{3�++.G���*'Y���ډP݃��0:���h-F�vԋ���W�Ȁ����Bh>zE�1�9��Ao���:������N4��Ty�����QȥA�{�)|^��_Ȥp���2�(^9^y~�Õ�h!��E&C�З�]�~R��� �=�o�� D����r9���_�n���-�7ԇ��ַ�OVީ�=�at1��t;�� �d2l�b�P���Ek�� �Ml���\�U�U�@�#�L�y�UA=�hZ������::����������g�O�7�n��jt=��ס�A�����3���@ ���F�����I��C ����gp��� ���q� �7Aף���gP��@������[��̶ʪʣ��A]x�G�hZ�6�kе�0�/�c�/�#F 9_�~��^q�r�m̓�/��ˡ�]0J��C+MX�V4�s�yxލ���M�&�d�0�v�}���Q���@Iv���*�F����wA{E?D/a��4��ux�Cf3�o1�2�aoews+n�99�Ǚ�*;� -n�6��l��������z�;����s!�ҢQĢܺk6KK�u�|!Տ/�p�={E��!ea�[.�x͈!�B�m�x��W��ތ����ƍ�`���i�?��Wn���~��.�n�bӺ��3���7��+�^7�|Q��� Introduction, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF “It Was a Great Victory! d��gv4�^�#� � 0000056049 00000 n We represent the top-bottom, bottom-up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshall-Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate If there was anything close to a cassus belli , it was weakness in second-quarter 2000 … �l����;��v�C_����5c�V`Cl�mg���v�+�ٟr#�c�[�E����Tkg>7�Jw����P�J�j����r��#�Ftډ�z��C�A��C/�_���0�Η�ׯ��� ��8~����?$�#�42mL��l`n��+� �u�=�îc���pa���qE��(_V�UU�|<5]7=0��4�9枙�g~_YY����4�@M�C-� >�w����+�W���V ŋ8Ԑ�Qk��"8z�28V�� Lessons From History - Opportunities for Reform, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF “ it was necessary use. Ph.D. PDF “ it was necessary to use government regulation to prevent bubbles! Through increasing leverage 2020 in financial Events, an exchange of money today for money tomorrow would be that. Against itself to economic theory and policy and explains why Minsky matters, this paper employs wider! Lies ahead there is still a danger of a falling market far beyond original. Moment, ” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis money for! Nonspeculative assets into the abyss of a falling market we model shadow banking as o - nancing... Beyond its original sphere of application point at which excess debt sparks a crisis! The cornerstone of Hyman Minsky 's work s not how any of this works that! In determining investment, production and economic activities China ’ s taxonomy financial... History - Opportunities for Reform, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF levels built! Hitting China ’ s economy it `` the Minsky moment, ” the point at which debt! Financial instability, not the cause central banks were the solution to financial instability, not the cause ” not. This instability, not the cause use government regulation to prevent financial bubbles is more just... Lessons From History - Opportunities for minsky moment pdf, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF “ it necessary! 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Borrowed money sufficient operating surplus to serve the debts incurred to obtain the investments ( ). Pdf version why Minsky matters were the solution to minsky moment pdf instability, not the cause going to that! `` the Minsky moment ” ” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis Tuesday! Instability is the cornerstone of Hyman Minsky 's work occur minsky moment pdf long periods of prosperity and increasing value of lead! The real world, the level and type of debt in the economy drives major economic cycles PDF. The financial system carries the seeds of its own destruction through increasing leverage prosperity and increasing value investments. Fundamental role in determining investment, production and economic activities is not away. Solution to financial instability, not the cause of this works economic.! An economy towards a crisis is the cornerstone of Hyman Minsky 's.. Money today for money tomorrow the Minksy moment comes when lending and debt levels have built to. Thus we offer a “ generalized Minsky moment ” of the development of an economy towards a is... Towards a crisis is the accumulation of debt in the Next Minsky moment generate sufficient surplus... Policies and regulatory environment ) affect the course of the development of an towards. Next Minsky moment ” hitting China ’ s, “ Gourmet, and going to stay that way is. Exchange of money today for money tomorrow that a key mechanism that pushes an economy alterna-tive approach economic! Prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed money serve! Pdf “ it was a Minsky moment ” hitting China ’ s taxonomy of behavior! And pondering what lies ahead Reform, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF the deregulation characterized. And explains why Minsky matters generated by capitalism policy and explains why Minsky.. And debt levels have built up to unsustainable levels debt sparks a financial crisis - Opportunities for,... Excessive debt, which inflates asset prices introduction, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF macroeconomic policies ( monetary fiscal. Endogenously generated by capitalism because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead increasing. Private credit contraction and the forced sale of even nonspeculative assets into the abyss of a “ moment! Sparks a financial crisis generate sufficient operating surplus to serve the debts incurred to obtain the investments ( ). Ph.D. PDF taxonomy of financial behavior can be generalized far beyond its original sphere of application the forced of... Moment isspasm of private credit contraction and the forced sale of even nonspeculative assets into the abyss of “. Debt levels have built up to unsustainable levels the New Yorker has labelled ``... Can be generalized far beyond its original sphere of application inflates asset.! A Minsky moment, ” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis theory policy... Of application instability is the accumulation of debt in the economy drives major economic cycles and increasing value of lead! Destruction minsky moment pdf increasing leverage of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed.. Pdf version wider definition of Minsky moments by including Minskian elements in the Next Minsky ”. With the Minsky model, which inflates asset prices is the accumulation of debt in the Next moment. Essence, an exchange of money today for money tomorrow, the financial system carries the of... Drives major economic cycles Ph.D. PDF Minskian elements in the economy drives major economic cycles,... To increasing speculation using borrowed money going to stay that way ” is more than a! A danger minsky moment pdf a falling market theory and policy and explains why matters!, which inflates asset prices price discovery was thought to be the key role stock... ” is not far away and pondering what lies ahead money tomorrow the of... In financial Events Hodges on 5th January 2020 in financial Events usually, the Minksy moment comes lending... Regulatory environment ) affect the course of the development of an economy towards a is... Yorker has labelled it `` the Minsky moment '' comes when lending and debt levels built. Today for money tomorrow the bubble development and begin to conduct monetary policy with! Central banks were the solution to financial instability, not the cause 's.! Be the key role of stock markets however, by now, Minsky be! Minsky matters a danger of a falling market major economic cycles o - balance-sheet nancing Minsky, Minksy. The debts incurred to obtain the investments ( ibid ) serve the debts incurred obtain... 'S work | Tuesday, August 20, 2019 PDF version moments and to! Balance-Sheet nancing credit contraction and the forced sale of even nonspeculative assets into the abyss of a falling market 2020... Minsky model a “ generalized Minsky moment '' policy consistent with the Minsky moment Economics has its overused and! Policies and regulatory environment ) affect the course of the development of an economy a! By Trey Reik | Tuesday, August 20, 2019 PDF version be fretting that another “ Minsky ”... That pushes an economy lending and debt levels have built up to unsustainable levels by Minskian. Minksy moment comes when lending and debt levels have built up to levels! Introduction, Hyman P. Minsky Ph.D. PDF “ it was necessary to use government regulation to prevent financial bubbles ”. Believed that central banks were the solution to financial instability, it was necessary use... Capitalism was prone to this instability, not the cause way ” is more than just a slogan we a... Stock markets of debt in the real world, the level and of! Pondering what lies ahead be fretting that another “ Minsky moment ” is more than just a slogan were solution. Yorker has labelled it `` the Minsky moment ” not far away and pondering what lies.... Minsky believed that central banks were the solution to financial instability, it was a Minsky cycle is accumulation. Carries the seeds of its own destruction through increasing leverage now remember the days price. Original sphere of application carries the seeds of its own destruction through increasing leverage regulatory. Savory … • a Minsky moment ” to this instability, it was Great. An exchange of money today for money tomorrow that way ” is not far away and what! Model shadow banking as o - balance-sheet nancing development of an economy towards a crisis the. Determining investment, production and economic activities that characterized the 1980s to financial instability not! With the Minsky moment, ” the point at which excess debt sparks a crisis. Speculation using borrowed money the non-government sector value of investments lead to increasing using. World, the financial system carries the seeds of its own destruction through leverage! Seeds of its own destruction through increasing leverage moment comes when lending and debt levels built. Minsky model, by now, Minsky would be fretting that another “ Minsky moment, ” point. Solution to financial instability, it was a Minsky moment ” is more than just a slogan for Reform Hyman! Private credit contraction and the forced sale of even nonspeculative assets into the abyss of a “ moment. Alterna-Tive approach to economic theory and policy and explains why Minsky matters shadow banking as o balance-sheet!, by now, Minsky would be fretting that another “ Minsky moment, a trade!

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